13.04.2021
A turn in Asian tech?
Asian exchange ChiNext was the first global technology instrument to fall out of a macro regime last year; moving ahead of similar regime shifts for US & European tech. It remained below our 65% threshold for the last 6 months but has now entered a new macro regime.
Model confidence is currently 71%, having risen 33% in the last 2 months.
Model confidence is currently 71%, having risen 33% in the last 2 months.
The February / March sell-off has, in valuation terms, left it 1.5 sigma (6.1%) cheap to macro-warranted model value. Back-tests suggest this is a rare but statistically significant level. Since 2009, only three times has ChiNext been in regime & with this big a negative FVG. Buying those dips elicited a 67% hit rate & 4.9% average return.
Perhaps most interesting of all is that Qi’s RETINA ™ is now flagging a Divergence buy signal.
RETINA ™ combines Qi’s existing macro valuations with a numerical measure of trend plus accelerating / decelerating momentum. In this instance the signal is exclusively predicated on valuation & one of Qi’s optimisation strategies.
RETINA ™ combines Qi’s existing macro valuations with a numerical measure of trend plus accelerating / decelerating momentum. In this instance the signal is exclusively predicated on valuation & one of Qi’s optimisation strategies.
A Divergence rule identifies when macro-warranted model value & spot price have moved in the opposite direction over the last 10 days. In this instance, the most recent sell-off has not been justified by macro fundamentals.
Macro valuation + trend / momentum overlay. Look Up ™
Macro valuation + trend / momentum overlay. Look Up ™
