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Orion Nebula 11107 1920
26.05.2023
Bullet proof
It's tough to argue with the superlatives surrounding Nvidia. The generative AI story does have the feel of a once-in-a-generation secular shift and the equity market will clearly be focused on picking the winners.

But is is worth checking in on the macro perspective and, in particular, the message from the bond market which has undergone a fairly sharp re-pricing. It's yet to embrace higher-for-longer as a theme for 2024, but the rate cuts priced over H2'23 have been removed.

The charts below show some of the macro inputs in our equity models in z-score terms, i.e. all shown in standard deviations from long term trend.

First up, 10y US real yields. The banking crisis saw real yields fall but, in the last few weeks the move higher in bond yields has taken them almost one standard deviation above trend.
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