08.01.2024
Qi Stock Spotlight - Unveiling winners & losers in a soft landing scenario
We dissected Qi’s S&P500 models, unveiling the top 30 winners and losers in a soft landing scenario.
Qi’s models rank stocks based on their exposure to growth expectations, HY credit spreads, Fed QT Expectations and USD TWI. A deep dive into the vulnerability of the top 30 winners reveals a 40% outperformance over the past year, contingent on the growth/inflation trade-off improving.
Sector breakdown? Financials and Consumer Discretionary are soft landing enthusiasts, while Consumer Staples and Utilities take a more cautious stance.
Qi’s models rank stocks based on their exposure to growth expectations, HY credit spreads, Fed QT Expectations and USD TWI. A deep dive into the vulnerability of the top 30 winners reveals a 40% outperformance over the past year, contingent on the growth/inflation trade-off improving.
Sector breakdown? Financials and Consumer Discretionary are soft landing enthusiasts, while Consumer Staples and Utilities take a more cautious stance.
Qi's macro factor sensitivity data is your toolkit, available via API or Excel add-in. We ran filters, removing stocks where macro influence was less than 65%. Our ~350 remaining stocks were ranked by exposure to global GDP Nowcast, copper (growth proxy), HY credit spreads, Fed QT expectations, and USD TWI (financial conditions proxy). The result? The top and bottom 30 names.
Taking it a step further, sector-level aggregation highlights Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology taking the lead; with Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples trailing. Financials, in particular, serve as a key barometer for the soft landing thesis.
Performance check? The 30 winners versus 30 losers show a outsized 40% outperformance over a year, assuming equal weighting. Plotting against the Citi Economic Surprise Index reveals a recent divergence.
This long/short pair has also been tracking High Yield credit spreads and rate vol through Q4.
Qi's power? Stress-test your portfolio or unearth macro thematic ideas.
For more on our screening process, reach out to the Qi team. Let's navigate the markets with insight, efficiency, and a touch of surprise.
For more on our screening process, reach out to the Qi team. Let's navigate the markets with insight, efficiency, and a touch of surprise.
