Hamburger
Close
Close

Quantitative Financial Market Analytics

Equities | FX | Rates | Commodities | Credit | ETFs

Omaega Nebula Homepag
Astronaut Float
Look up™
Data overload and a sea of research reports leave global investors none the wiser.
Outperformance is now driven by analysis of data by smart machines that extract signal from noise.

The investing world is changing.

Are you?
Qi insights
Insights showcase topical observations from Qi.
How Qi data can be used to generate trade signals,
observe regime shifts or stress test different macro scenarios.
Pexels Sam Willis 3934512
13.10.2021
Transitory a 'dirty word'
Governor Bostic has revealed he & his staff at the Atlanta Fed have a swear jar labelled “transitory”, & they have to forfeit $1 each time they use the “t” word. A neat story that captures how far the debate has swung away from the idea inflation is temporary.
See more
Casey Horner Rmowqdcqn2E Unsplash
12.10.2021
Black Friday starts now
Supply chain disruptions are re-defining the traditional holiday shopping season. Last week Amazon declared “the holidays have officially begun” as it announced discounts earlier than normal. It, & other retailers, are looking to appeal to those consumers eager to move ahead of potential shortages.
See more
View more insights
Close
Pexels Sam Willis 3934512
13.10.2021
Transitory a 'dirty word'
Governor Bostic has revealed he & his staff at the Atlanta Fed have a swear jar labelled “transitory”, & they have to forfeit $1 each time they use the “t” word. A neat story that captures how far the debate has swung away from the idea inflation is temporary.
As we enter earnings season it is evident that the inflation dynamic continues to deteriorate for US single stocks. “US equities & inflation - a regime shift?” first flagged the shifting pattern by isolating individual stocks independent sensitivity to inflation expectations.

The orange line showing the number of stocks with positive sensitivity to US inflation expectations has fallen to a fresh low. Just 117 S&P500 stocks in macro regimes now see rising inflation as a tailwind for performance. That’s around a third of the total that were enjoying the reflation bounce in Q1.
Image 45
Back in March, the number of stocks in regime with a negative relationship (“headwind”) was effectively zero - the reflation narrative was all encompassing. Now that number is 41.

That total of 158 stocks shows the degree to which US equities remain out of regime. Currently non-macro factors are bigger drivers of price action than economic fundamentals, financial conditions or risk appetite. Qi has repeatedly demonstrated that leaves the market more vulnerable to transient factors like positioning, flow & sentiment – all of which are inherently more susceptible to bouts of volatility.

At the index level, model confidence for the S&P500 is now back at 50%, up 34% in the last 2 weeks alone. A new macro regime appears to be forming & sensitivity to inflation has just edged into negative territory. A major macro shift appears to be on the cusp of confirmation.
Casey Horner Rmowqdcqn2E Unsplash
12.10.2021
Black Friday starts now
Supply chain disruptions are re-defining the traditional holiday shopping season. Last week Amazon declared “the holidays have officially begun” as it announced discounts earlier than normal. It, & other retailers, are looking to appeal to those consumers eager to move ahead of potential shortages.
Increased freight & warehouse costs could yet compress margins but, for those anticipating decent volumes in the months ahead, it is worth noting that, on Qi, US retailers (XRT) currently screen as cheap versus the broader market (SPY).

The XRT vs. SPY ratio is 6.25% below macro-warranted model value. That’s the biggest deficit to macro fair value in the last year.
Tuesday3
It is also a statistically significant level. There have only been 10 instances since 2009 where XRT vs. SPY has been this far below model fair value when in regime. Buying the dip at that level elicits a 60% hit rate for an average return of +0.8%.

The macro regime is all about domestic & global reflation. Retailers outperform the broader market when US real rates are rising, the yield curve is steepening & when global growth (China GDP plus commodities) are robust. A strong Dollar is the biggest single negative.

For those who believe in US consumers & their appetite to fuel a robust shopping season, this looks like an attractive entry level to play upside amongst US retail stocks.
Green Triangle
Woman Walking Up
Using sophisticated yet transparent mathematics we deliver real time clarity around the macro forces driving markets, valuation anomalies, high probability trading signals, price trend shifts and the real underlying macro risks in your portfolio.
Nasa Space Brown
Man Looking Into Diamond
We work with leaders in the fields of machine learning, Bayesian inference and astrophysics from Cambridge, Princeton and Harvard. Our technologists have backgrounds at the European Space Agency and Microsoft and have harnessed modern cloud based architectures.
The result is multiple delivery channels and effortless integration into your workflow.
Purple Sky
Woman Looking Up 2
The largest and smartest money in the world now incorporates Qi’s analytics in their investment process. Methodology is transparent and documented.

Access a whole new level of actionable insight, gain clarity and save time where others find confusion and rely on educated guesses.

Watch the video
Quant Insight. Look Up.
Close
Thank you for request
A team member will contact you soon shortly.
Get in touch
Simply complete the enquiry form, and one of our team will be in touch.
We offer access to Qi data and analytics with a range of trials:

> 14 days of Retina™
> 14 days of Insights
> Tactical Asset Allocation reports
> 14 days of Web portal use
> Macro factor risk screening
> 30 days Custom Dashboards
> 30 days of API access
Name: 
Company email: 
Tel number (optional): 
Company: 
My geographical location is:

My asset class focus is:
Submit