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05.01.2023
Tactical Trading
Model confidence is high on Qi's Short Term models, underpinning the importance of tactical trading in January. Don't get suckered into early year consensus views.

Macro matters and there's little valuation edge currently. 2023 is shaping up to be all about macro, again! And, thus far, US equity indices are behaving as they should.

Watching ST model value moves will be critical.
We have been talking for some weeks now about regime change in US equities. 2022 was all about the Fed; 2023 looks like it could be more about the real economy.

Mainly that’s because sensitivities are shifting – less about real yields, more about economic growth & industrial metals.

But it’s also because model confidence is falling.

However, Qi's Short Term models for US equity indices are extraordinarily strong. Using a 4month rather than 12month look-back period, macro explains 97% of the variance in the Dow!

In fact, there are a number of interesting observations we can take from our Short Term models right now. This quick video looks at:
  • the "true" January effect - tactical versus strategic trading, and the need for patience
  • how equities are closely tracking macro patterns. 2023 is once again shaping up to be a macro-driven year!
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