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What are the risks? And how can Qi help?

1.) Monetary Policy Shift

Clearly, if the Fed shifts to a tightening bias, markets won’t like this, especially if the speed of response is fast rather than gentle.

Why would they tighten aggressively? Seems the only reason they would do this is if they felt long term inflation expectations were becoming “unanchored”. How would Qi pick this up?

If we see major US equity indices become negatively sensitive to long term (10y) inflation expectations, then that would be a sign that the market is worrying about a fast Fed tightening driven by higher Long Term inflation expectations. As another confirming factor, one would expect higher negative sensitivity to 10y inflation expectations compared to short term 2yr expectations.

If 10y nominal and real yields rise as a result of tightening, then we would see stocks showing significant negative sensitivity to higher rates.

We may also see stocks showing rising sensitivity to the US 5s30s yield curve.

S&P500 sensitivity to the US Yield Curve

* The chart shows the percentage impact on SPX for a one standard deviation increase (steepening ) in the US 5s30s yield curve, every other factor held constant.

* For most of 2020, the S&P500 wanted a flatter yield curve – suggesting reliance on QE & the Fed keeping rates low.

* That started to change after the November election result and, after the Georgia result in January, the relationship turned positive; i.e. a steeper yield curve was consistent with higher SPX. US large caps liked the reflation narrative.

* That shift proved short-lived & the relationship is modest currently but an increase in sensitivity could speak to another regime shift & a change in market perception around the Fed’s reaction function and its impact on future growth.

2.) Fiscal Policy Shift

If the US signals an end or a reverse to fiscal expansion, this would probably see long term growth expectations decline; i.e. US 5s30s curve flattening.

If Qi shows rising sensitivity of stocks to the curve, then this could be a warning that peak fiscal has occurred and markets are worrying about payback.

3.) Credit Cycle Shift & Defaults

If the amount of corporate debt is in fact an issue, and rising defaults and rising rates are causing corporate pain, we will see an increase in sensitivity to HY credit spreads.

The chart shows the percentage impact for a one standard deviation increase (widening) in corporate credit spreads. The relationship is inherently negative – equities want tighter credit spreads.

Note the first leg lower in March 2020. This was the Fed’s initial policy response to lockdowns which included expanded QE – both in size, but also in scope, i.e. “fallen angels”.

SPX’s reliance on tighter credit spreads increased through the rest of 2020 – it was the dominant driver meaning while the Fed back-stopped credit spreads, dips in the S&P500 were buying opportunities. That changed after the Democrat win & the emergence of a fiscal response reduced sensitivity to credit.

If sensitivity picks up once again, that will reflect one of two things. Another round of QE that further widens Fed asset purchases in credit. Or, the market is starting to fret about the health of the credit cycle.

4.) Max Policy Persists and Creates a Big Inflation Problem

Maybe policy makers just let the economy run too hot, for too long. What could go wrong?

The Dollar is undermined – look for a more serious weakening of the USD if real rates keep going negative. We would see very high negative sensitivity of the Dollar to inflation expectation differentials. See EURUSD case study below.

Big US bond sell off. If the Fed loses credibility, maybe foreign investors start selling US bonds in such size that QE is overwhelmed. The reserve status of USD has protected US Treasuries but it’s possible that this breaks. US long bonds would have very high sensitivity to 10y US inflation expectations; sensitivity to GDP growth would not be high as it wouldn’t really matter too much. The Qi portal showcases that sensitivity on a daily basis.

EURUSD – 2020 case study

* EURUSD was out of regime over the first half of 2020 – the cross simply wasn’t sensitive to macro factors.

* In June a new regime emerged; one where sensitivity to inflation differentials was key. At the time Fed QE had pushed 10y real yields to -50bp but easy monetary policies meant they were just starting a journey to -100bp.

* A range-bound EURUSD had frustrated Dollar bears over H1’20. But the Qi signal gave anyone believing Fed largesse equated to a weaker USD, the green light to increase risk. Spot EURUSD rallied from 1.12 at the start of June to 1.19 over the next 2 months.

On Qi, both the Nikkei 225 & TOPIX are now 1.3 sigma (4.1%) rich to macro. Moreover, model confidence is high at 90% & 80% respectively. Political developments are important but so too are macro fundamentals.

There are subtle differences between the regimes but both emphasise the importance of domestic reflation. Rising Japanese inflation expectations & a steeper Yen yield curve feature prominently for both indices.

A new administration may well plan more stimulus but, on this snapshot, the market has discounted a fair degree of success already.

Back-testing the efficacy of a +1.4 sigma FVG as a sell signal since 2009 produces strong results. For the Nikkei, a 62.5% hit rate & an average return of +0.5%. The equivalent numbers for the TOPIX are 66.7% & +2.1%.

The bullish case for Japanese equities can point to other drivers – strong seasonality into year-end, underweight positioning. But, on Qi, further gains will increasingly need the macro factors to do the work. The relative value expression Nikkei 225 vs S&P500 has lagged &, at ‘only’ 0.5 sigma rich to model, may offer a better trade.

The list is not exhaustive – Qi clients can assemble their own names using the Watchlist function. It is also notable that several are in micro rather than macro regimes. Idiosyncratic factors such as lower subscription growth are, for example, more important for Netflix which is the one lockdown stock rich versus its macro environment.

That said, from a macro perspective there is a pronounced skew to valuations being cheap. Whether working from home; day trading stimulus cheques, exercising or shopping at home, these stocks are not especially well valued by equity investors currently, at least in macro terms.

Mainstream media tends to focus on a series of fresh highs at the index level, but are single stocks providing a similar message about the delta variant keeping people away from offices?

For those looking to hedge their bets, note RETINA™ has a new bullish signal on Uber. It is -1.4 sigma (19%) cheap to model; moreover a divergence signal has arisen since spot has fallen 4.5% over the last 10 days, but Qi model value has increased 2.8%.

Qi’s model for the 5s30s US dollar swap curve is strong with confidence at 76% & rising. It suggests macro fair value is around 85.5bp. That leaves spot currently 9bp too flat.

Confirming its status as an indicator of forward growth prospects, global economic growth (Now-Casting tracking GDP for US, China, EuroZone, Japan) is the single biggest bucket. The country breakdown within that bucket is striking. The US yield curve is currently more sensitive to Chinese growth than domestic growth.

Moreover, the biggest single negative driver is China sovereign stress as measured by credit default swaps. Financial stress in China is consistent with a flatter yield curve (again, presumably reduced growth prospects).

For now, after a strong trend lower over July/August, Qi model value suggests the curve flattening is consolidating. Indeed, the flattening has overshot fundamentals to a modest degree.

While it remains in regime, this will be a vital indicator to watch for clues on how the bond market perceives the health of the global economic cycle. And, on present patterns, that means monitoring China.

Fed QT expectations is the red line. It clearly led the Q1 taper tantrum. Rate volatility spiked significantly in Feb / March &, on Qi, that was a 5 standard deviation move.

Since then we have seen a gradual drift lower &, the current snapshot suggests US interest rate volatility has reverted close to trend. Powell clearly has the capacity to surprise in today’s speech but, going into the event at least, there is no sign the bond vigilantes are particularly agitated.

An alternative interpretation would suggest the stage is set for the next exogenous shock that prompts a deviation from long term trend.

Unsurprisingly, the BoJ has followed its own path while the rate volatility market in Euros & Sterling suggest the ECB & BoE are largely derivatives of the Fed decision.

The inference from this picture confirms the current perception that the Fed will be first mover; the BoE not far behind, while rate vol markets think the ECB & BoJ are happy to maintain their uber accommodative stance for some time yet.