Insights

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Topical observations from the Qi macro lens. Build your investment roadmap with the best-in-class quantitative analysis and global data.

08.04.2021

Infrastructure Super Cycle

What is the best way to trade President Biden’s American Jobs Plan? Qi’s Infrastructure Super Cycle Watchlist contains a mix of US single stocks, sectors & thematic ETFs.

07.04.2021

Japan

USDJPY is back in a macro regime. It is also 1.7 sigma (2.7%) rich to macro fair value. It got as high as +2.2 sigma (+3.5%) at the end of March, but model confidence was still just below our 65% threshold.

Now our R-Squared criteria is met & we have an inflection sell signal - both spot price & Qi model value have moved lower over the last 3 days.

If the Yen were to strengthen, traditional perceptions would see that as a potential headwind for Japanese equities. What are the current key drivers for the Nikkei & TOPIX?

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01.04.2021

Infrastructure

One option for trading President Biden's new American Jobs Plan is the PAVE ETF which tracks the US Infrastructure Development Index.

PAVE is in a strong & stable macro regime. Model confidence is a robust 94% currently, & it hasn't been below 80% in the last 12 months. Macro matters.

What are the key drivers, & to what extend has it priced in the Democrat's plans?

31.03.2021

Gold vs. Bitcoin

Bitcoin is many things to many people but, on the current pattern of associations, it offers a more efficient inflation hedge than Gold.

Gold has a valuation edge - it is now one sigma (4.7%) cheap to macro fair value.

Bitcoin's model value is around 60,000 so it is effectively in line with its macro environment. Both are in strong macro regimes but the contrast in sensitivity to inflation is the most striking feature.

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30.03.2021

Rates on the move

US interest rates are on the move once again. Nominal 10y yields have hit a new 2021 high while 10y real rates have risen 10bp this week alone.

The critical question for equity investors remains whether rising yields are a benefit as they reflect a bullish growth backdrop. Or, by tightening financial conditions, represent a headwind to future performance. Qi empirically demonstrates the sensitivity of different US equity sectors to US real rates.

29.03.2021

The US Dollar

Screening across all Qi's currency models for the 10 biggest valuation gaps results in seven of them being crosses that involve the US Dollar.

All seven show the Dollar as rich versus macro model value.

Four of those seven show the FVG at a 1 year extreme.

26.03.2021

EURUSD

The down trade in EURUSD over March has not been driven by deteriorating macro fundamentals. Qi model value has moved sideways & that has opened up a 1.26 sigma (2.8%) Fair Value Gap

26.03.2021

Qi & EPFR

EPFR's best-in-class flow/sentiment data, allied with Qi's macro framework is a formidable combination.

25.03.2021

An efficient 'risk off' play

Nervous about the re-opening trade? That the rotation trade of the last 3months is vulnerable to further unwinds?

Qi has a Divergence signal on the US Materials versus Industrial ratio (XLB vs. XLI). Both are cyclicals but one - Materials - is the more geared to 'risk off' & is currently cheap to Industrials relative to the macro environment.

25.03.2021

Semiconductors

Earlier this month “Regime Shift in Tech” flagged how Technology was falling out of a macro regime. But while NASDAQ, US IT & European Technology all saw macro’s explanatory power fall, Semiconductors were the outlier – still a macro play.

08.04.2021

Infrastructure Super Cycle

What is the best way to trade President Biden’s American Jobs Plan? Qi’s Infrastructure Super Cycle Watchlist contains a mix of US single stocks, sectors & thematic ETFs.

Macro model confidence is typically high & most valuations are close to fair value.

Steel company Nucor appears to have discounted some of the good macro news already. Otherwise the models that are modestly rich to model are at the sector level (Materials XLB & Industrials XLI) or specialist infrastructure ETFs – PAVE & IGF.

Single stocks are, relatively speaking, modestly lagging the potential Biden uplift. Commercial vehicles company Cummins which is working on electric buses is the book-end at 3.4% cheap to macro.

Each stock-picker will have their preferred play. Qi clients can run their own picks versus the prevailing macro regime to see where the bottom-up & top-down views align.

01.04.2021

Infrastructure

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30.03.2021

Rates on the move

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29.03.2021

The US Dollar

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26.03.2021

EURUSD

The down trade in EURUSD over March has not been driven by deteriorating macro fundamentals. Qi model value has moved sideways & that has opened up a 1.26 sigma (2.8%) Fair Value Gap

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26.03.2021

Qi & EPFR

EPFR's best-in-class flow/sentiment data, allied with Qi's macro framework is a formidable combination.

Aligning macro fundamentals, positioning & sentiment. A comprehensive mix of factors for any investment process.