Insights

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Topical observations from the Qi macro lens. Build your investment roadmap with the best-in-class quantitative analysis and global data.

30.03.2021

Rates on the move

US interest rates are on the move once again. Nominal 10y yields have hit a new 2021 high while 10y real rates have risen 10bp this week alone.

The critical question for equity investors remains whether rising yields are a benefit as they reflect a bullish growth backdrop. Or, by tightening financial conditions, represent a headwind to future performance. Qi empirically demonstrates the sensitivity of different US equity sectors to US real rates.

29.03.2021

The US Dollar

Screening across all Qi's currency models for the 10 biggest valuation gaps results in seven of them being crosses that involve the US Dollar.

All seven show the Dollar as rich versus macro model value.

Four of those seven show the FVG at a 1 year extreme.

26.03.2021

EURUSD

The down trade in EURUSD over March has not been driven by deteriorating macro fundamentals. Qi model value has moved sideways & that has opened up a 1.26 sigma (2.8%) Fair Value Gap

26.03.2021

Qi & EPFR

EPFR's best-in-class flow/sentiment data, allied with Qi's macro framework is a formidable combination.

25.03.2021

An efficient 'risk off' play

Nervous about the re-opening trade? That the rotation trade of the last 3months is vulnerable to further unwinds?

Qi has a Divergence signal on the US Materials versus Industrial ratio (XLB vs. XLI). Both are cyclicals but one - Materials - is the more geared to 'risk off' & is currently cheap to Industrials relative to the macro environment.

25.03.2021

Semiconductors

Earlier this month “Regime Shift in Tech” flagged how Technology was falling out of a macro regime. But while NASDAQ, US IT & European Technology all saw macro’s explanatory power fall, Semiconductors were the outlier – still a macro play.

24.03.2021

Qi & Real Vision

Qi talk about the NASDAQ & the broader technology space. A change in factor leadership early in Feb left it the most vulnerable to a Fed Taper Tantrum style scenario. Then, early in March, it fell out of macro regime altogether. Real Vision's Jack Farley interviews Qi's Huw Roberts.

24.03.2021

Beware Risk Off?

The Kiwi has turned sharply lower – a warning for broader risk appetite?

The fall in spot NZDUSD fx has prompted spot price to diverge from macro model value & open up a Fair Value Gap of -1.15 sigma (-4.7%)

23.03.2021

Momentum loves Value

The one year anniversary of the 2020 Covid lows has factor investors on watch for a potentially significant shift in momentum strategies. A shift where the composition of momentum pivots away from technology & towards value stocks.

22.03.2021

US bond sell-off: What's the impact on EM rates

While Chairman Powell seems relaxed about recent moves in the long end of the US Treasury market, it does raise increasing concerns for EM debt markets. More specifically, which EM rates markets are most sensitive to the gyrations in US bond markets?

30.03.2021

Rates on the move

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29.03.2021

The US Dollar

PDF download

26.03.2021

EURUSD

The down trade in EURUSD over March has not been driven by deteriorating macro fundamentals. Qi model value has moved sideways & that has opened up a 1.26 sigma (2.8%) Fair Value Gap

PDF download

26.03.2021

Qi & EPFR

EPFR's best-in-class flow/sentiment data, allied with Qi's macro framework is a formidable combination.

Aligning macro fundamentals, positioning & sentiment. A comprehensive mix of factors for any investment process.