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Macro Markets Insights
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Topical observations from the Qi macro lens. Build your investment roadmap with the best-in-class quantitative analysis and global data.
Anna Anikina Ath9Gmakfpe Unsplash
04.05.2023
Jay Powell is watching credit
- shouldn't you be too?
In the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, the Fed explicitly acknowledged that the banking crisis and subsequent tightening of credit conditions, was having the same effect as rate hikes.

In last night's press conference, Chair Powell effectively signalled the Fed were in watch-&-wait mode. And that a key feature of their new data dependency is to watch and assess the impact of tighter credit conditions.

The message is pretty unequivocal - watch credit. Next week's Fed Senior Loan Office Survey was already a hugely important data point. Even more so now.

But otherwise, how is an equity investor supposed to 1.) easily keep track of all the moving parts of the credit market, 2.) measure their impact on the stocks, sector, ETFs that they care about?

Qi's Optimise Trade Selection function.
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Pexels Sam Willis 3934512
01.05.2023
Concentration risk
It is not new news that a handful of mega cap Tech stocks have driven the 2023 equity market rally. But the degree to which the broad equity market relies on these few companies is reaching historical levels.

The chart below shows the regular market cap weighted QQQ ETF versus its equal weighted counterpart QQEW. The ratio is approaching the highs recorded in q4'21 - the peak of the Covid lockdown tech rally.
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26.04.2023
Hiding in Consumer Staples?
Thus far, company earnings appear to be beating downbeat expectations. Since the October low in US equity markets, every sector has seen forward earnings expectations revised lower. Bar one - consumer staples.

If the equity market is on watch for an earnings recession, then Staples are the one area for guarded optimism. Analysts believe they can maintain performance.

Makes sense. XLP's three biggest holdings are Procter & Gamble (14.5%), Pepsi (10.2%) and Coca-Cola (9.7%) - arguably the three poster children for the concept of corporate pricing power. These companies have become synonymous with the idea that rising input costs provide air cover to push higher prices onto consumers.

So does the macro picture agree with the idea Consumer Staples are the best defensive bets for equity bears right now? The chart below shows the Qi model for XLP
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Simone Mascellari Xnn42Lsnv28 Unsplash Copy
19.04.2023
Tech. Priced for perfection?
The S&P 500 has rallied 7.6% from its March low, led by Tech and Communication services.

Regional banks, at the epicentre of the early March weakness, are still close to their lows. With the smaller cap Russell 2000 charting a path closer to regional banks than the S&P 500.

Alongside this, we saw an 8 standard deviation drop in 2yr yields last month. And this was a crucial fact enabling investors to jump on the longer duration, growth-orientated Technology heavyweights. Companies with the strongest balance sheets.

VIX dropped to sub-17, a level not seen before inflation fears started manifesting in 2022. In a way, the SVB shock did a favour for the broader US equity market – the market was able to compartmentalize the shock.

The question now is for how long is this sustainable? Despite the VIX at these levels, sentiment and positioning data are not at orange signs and data over Q1 has been good – just look at the nowcast or Citi surprise indices.

But that is where we were, and we need to contend with the seemingly divergent view between the rate and equity market.
The rates market is priced for peak rates this summer and cuts over H2, i.e. a credit crunch is coming and the labour market will weaken.

Equities, given the rally towards 6mth highs and the earnings yield gap to bonds at multi-year lows, seem to be suggesting the drop in expected bank lending will be enough to quell inflation but not enough to warrant a recession.

Two possible scenarios:
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Casey Horner Rmowqdcqn2E Unsplash
18.04.2023
Complacency?
VIX is below 17. The chart below shows the equity market's "fear gauge" in z-score terms which is how Qi models all its macro variables. It is now 1.6 standard deviations below trend.

Eyeballing the chart you can see it is possible for VIX to spend a protracted period at these lower levels. However, it is also fair to point out that we are close to extremes of the range. These are levels that suggest equity markets are skewed to complacency.
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Felix Mittermeier L4 16Dmz 1C Unsplash
12.04.2023
HUF - the road to hell
is paved with positive carry
The Hungarian Forint has been one of 2023's best performing currencies. Geopolitical risks and weak economic data have seemingly been offset by carry dynamics with the Hungarian National Bank remaining resolutely focused on keeping rates high to fight inflation.

Qi largely agrees but with some early notes of caution.

Macro-warranted fair value is still trending lower for USDHUF.
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Amber Weir Ul0Hbkwlrf4 Unsplash
11.04.2023
Hawkish RBNZ, dovish RBA
= AUDNZD downside?
Last week both the RBNZ and RBA met. The former surprised with a more hawkish 50bp rate hike; the latter left rates unchanged and seemed to emphasize growth vulnerabilities rather than inflation threats.

Such a contrast in respective policy stances would appear to clearly point to downside pressure for AUDNZD fx.

But a key part of investing is measuring the degree to which existing news is already priced in. This short video shows how Qi can be used to:
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03.04.2023
The Aussie battler
After the initial excitement, the China re-opening trade has generally underwhelmed. Last week's news about Alibaba splitting up into six "baby Babas" has rekindled hopes that the tech sector at least could kick back into life.

What about other China trades? The Aussie Dollar appears to have lagged the most recent bounce in risk appetite. What's the quant macro perspective on the Aussie?

This is our Watchlist of various Aussie fx crosses:
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Daoudi Aissa Pe1Ol9Olc4O Unsplash
29.03.2023
Where AI and safe haven tech meet
Two of 2023's big investment themes - next generation AI, and the flight into big tech stocks as safe haven plays - both coincide with NVIDIA.

This 2 minute video looks at these dynamics and then adds a macro overlay. In short, while model value has risen some 14% year-to-date, the stock has run ahead of macro fundamentals.

This isn't a bearish recommendation per se. It remains a great stock with a strong story.

It is, however, a reminder that with quarter end looming (and potential rebalancing flows maybe looking to trim some winners) it has discounted a fair amount of good news already.
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Aaron Burden Nxt5Prob 7U Unsplash
22.03.2023
Stalling speed?
While we await tonight's momentous Fed decision, a quick re-cap on one of 2023's other big macro topics: China's re-opening.

Qi has a number of factors we use in our models that speak to the health of the Chinese economy and financial system.

Each time the factors are shown in z-score terms. Essentially when a factor is above (below) the zero bound, it is running above (below) trend. We update them below:
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Pexels Sam Willis 3934512
01.05.2023
Concentration risk
It is not new news that a handful of mega cap Tech stocks have driven the 2023 equity market rally. But the degree to which the broad equity market relies on these few companies is reaching historical levels.

The chart below shows the regular market cap weighted QQQ ETF versus its equal weighted counterpart QQEW. The ratio is approaching the highs recorded in q4'21 - the peak of the Covid lockdown tech rally.
See more
Qqq4
On Qi there is a striking difference between the two ETFs. Both in terms of the importance of macro, and their valuations.

QQQ remains just below our threshold for a macro regime. No signal can therefore be generated but it sits 1.4 standard deviations (8.1%) rich to model.

QQEW has 80% model confidence. It is in a strong macro regime. It is also rich but the Valuation Gap is modest; 'just' 0.5 std dev (2.5%).

The macro regimes are identical. Tech stocks want a Goldilocks mix of reflation, easy financial conditions and healthy risk appetite.
Qqq1
In short, the mega cap FAANGs are rich and idiosyncratic plays. But broader US technology stocks are a macro play, and are largely behaving as they should given current macro conditions.

Put another way, the FAANGs are responsible for lower macro model confidence and rich valuations. Consider the following stats:
  • Meta - macro model confidence of 57%; the stock is 2 standard deviations rich to model.
  • Apple - 28% model confidence, 1.6 std dev rich.
  • Amazon - macro explains just 20% of the variance of AMZN. The stock sits 1 std dev above model value.
  • Google - 37% and 1.6 std dev rich
  • Microsoft - 51% and a FVG of +2.3 std dev
Mega cap Tech is marching to a different tune. Most likely, the hype around generative AI has become more important than macro fundamentals.

Even in a week that contains ISM, Payrolls and a Fed meeting it is not hyperbole to say Apple's earnings on Thursday are potentially the biggest focus for equity markets. It remains the biggest company in both the S&P500 and NASDAQ.

If Apple can beat consensus expectations then the odds favour a continuation of the rally; maybe even a breakout of the mind-numbing range of recent months.

That will frustrate the bears, especially if the elasticity of mega cap outperformance has stretched as far as it can, meaning the broader market enjoys a bout of catch up. The bear camp will be hoping disappointing earnings are the catalyst for mega caps to catch down.

Qi's QQQ vs. QQEW Long Term model is not in regime. The ST model very much is (94% confidence) and suggests the market is simply tracking macro conditions.
Qqq3
Simone Mascellari Xnn42Lsnv28 Unsplash Copy
19.04.2023
Tech. Priced for perfection?
The S&P 500 has rallied 7.6% from its March low, led by Tech and Communication services.

Regional banks, at the epicentre of the early March weakness, are still close to their lows. With the smaller cap Russell 2000 charting a path closer to regional banks than the S&P 500.

Alongside this, we saw an 8 standard deviation drop in 2yr yields last month. And this was a crucial fact enabling investors to jump on the longer duration, growth-orientated Technology heavyweights. Companies with the strongest balance sheets.

VIX dropped to sub-17, a level not seen before inflation fears started manifesting in 2022. In a way, the SVB shock did a favour for the broader US equity market – the market was able to compartmentalize the shock.

The question now is for how long is this sustainable? Despite the VIX at these levels, sentiment and positioning data are not at orange signs and data over Q1 has been good – just look at the nowcast or Citi surprise indices.

But that is where we were, and we need to contend with the seemingly divergent view between the rate and equity market.
The rates market is priced for peak rates this summer and cuts over H2, i.e. a credit crunch is coming and the labour market will weaken.

Equities, given the rally towards 6mth highs and the earnings yield gap to bonds at multi-year lows, seem to be suggesting the drop in expected bank lending will be enough to quell inflation but not enough to warrant a recession.

Two possible scenarios:
See more
  • First, rates markets are too bearish. So far US data has been good, the US economic surprise index still ticking higher, a recession may not happen and rates may remain higher for longer with cuts pushed out towards 2024.
  • In this scenario, the move higher in yields will hurt a driving force for Tech outperformance which has carried the market thus far. In so doing, the overall index will remain on the backfoot.
  • Second, equities are indeed rich to bonds in the face of cuts in H2 of this year with the recession coming accompanied by higher credit spreads, weaker earnings. At the start of this month, the MOVE / VIX ratio was at multi-year highs reflecting the more sanguine equity view. In this scenario, that ratio would converge and Technology likely will also weaken given its higher beta status.
  • This comes at a time where PE relatives are also at multi-year highs, supporting the view that optimism on a falling cost of capital has been important for Tech strength.
Amit1
According to Qi, the Nasdaq 100 stands at just over 1 sigma rich to macro warranted valuation, having trading 1 sigma cheap into 2023. Higher economic growth (consensus GDP forecasts have been rising over Q1), tighter credit spreads and falling rate vol have all been important macro drivers.

Relative to the S&P 500, the largest macro driver has been falling rate vol. Model value is still rising but the rich valuation puts greater onus on the macro drivers continuing to move favourably
Amit2
We face a higher growth expectation hurdle rate going into Q2. Since 2010, the annualised return of the SPX is ~10%. However, if you first look at annualised returns when the Citi US Economic Surprise index is falling from peak to trough – those periods are associated with ~5% annualised return. When its rising from trough to peak, 20% annualised returns.

The Citi economic surprise index is inherently a mean-reverting index – it will more likely be falling than rising this quarter. The expectations hurdle for the Tech sector from the perspective of the forthcoming earnings season is also likely high – especially if we are indeed close to the end of the Fed rate hiking cycle. Bottom-line, in Q2 data dependency will increase.
Amit3Amit4
Amber Weir Ul0Hbkwlrf4 Unsplash
11.04.2023
Hawkish RBNZ, dovish RBA
= AUDNZD downside?
Last week both the RBNZ and RBA met. The former surprised with a more hawkish 50bp rate hike; the latter left rates unchanged and seemed to emphasize growth vulnerabilities rather than inflation threats.

Such a contrast in respective policy stances would appear to clearly point to downside pressure for AUDNZD fx.

But a key part of investing is measuring the degree to which existing news is already priced in. This short video shows how Qi can be used to:
See more
  • ascertain whether interest rate differentials are indeed the critical driver of any currency cross
  • measure the degree to which yield spreads are already reflected in the price
  • use Qi's macro valuations to provide a roadmap for potential trading opportunities
03.04.2023
The Aussie battler
After the initial excitement, the China re-opening trade has generally underwhelmed. Last week's news about Alibaba splitting up into six "baby Babas" has rekindled hopes that the tech sector at least could kick back into life.

What about other China trades? The Aussie Dollar appears to have lagged the most recent bounce in risk appetite. What's the quant macro perspective on the Aussie?

This is our Watchlist of various Aussie fx crosses:
See more
Aussie1
What stands out?
  • Amongst the majors that are in macro regimes, Aussie screens as modestly cheap versus the Euro, Yen and both Kiwi and Canadian Dollar.
  • The issue is macro momentum points to further Aussie depreciation.
  • For example, since mid-March, Qi macro model value has fallen 1.25% for AUDNZD and 2.3% for AUDJPY; over the same period, macro-warranted model value for EURAUD has risen 1.8%.
  • It's the same basic dynamic each time - interest rate differentials and risk appetite (VIX + corporate spreads) have driven the model moves.
  • Tomorrow's RBA announcement will be important. But it is important to note the current pattern shows that, for these FX pairs, Aussie is not the chief beneficiary during periods of "risk on".
The exception is AUDUSD

Macro fair value has bounced 2.9% since mid-month.

Why? The chart below breaks down the attribution of the recent move. Every factor moved in its favour but the key drivers were metal prices, interest rate differentials and "risk on" (tighter credit spreads, lower VIX).
Aud1
There's a modest valuation edge. Qi has AUDUSD as 1.0% cheap as spot has slightly lagged the improvement in macro conditions.
Aussie3
When the valuation gap is modest, the investment conclusion is what model value does next is critical.

If you believe April can maintain a strong risk appetite vibe... if you believe tomorrow's RBA keeps future rate hike options open... then ignore the cheaper valuations on other Aussie crosses, AUDUSD upside is the the most efficient play.
Daoudi Aissa Pe1Ol9Olc4O Unsplash
29.03.2023
Where AI and safe haven tech meet
Two of 2023's big investment themes - next generation AI, and the flight into big tech stocks as safe haven plays - both coincide with NVIDIA.

This 2 minute video looks at these dynamics and then adds a macro overlay. In short, while model value has risen some 14% year-to-date, the stock has run ahead of macro fundamentals.

This isn't a bearish recommendation per se. It remains a great stock with a strong story.

It is, however, a reminder that with quarter end looming (and potential rebalancing flows maybe looking to trim some winners) it has discounted a fair amount of good news already.
See more
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