Insights

After Tariff Capitulation, Economic Data Now Front & Centre

If Happiness = Outcome – Expectations
..then equities are in a better mood

Dissecting the Trade War Impact:
US Auto Case Study

‍

1. Stocks discounting further tightening in US HY Credit?
2. EFA - The easy vol reset has ben done
3. USD-Asia On the move I
‍
‍

Real Rates Still Matter - A lot for the S&P490

‍

1. JPXN -Near Term Overextended
2. US Consumer Discretionary - Model Momentum Waning
3. Viva Brazil! Just not at these levels

‍

‍

‍

‍

Macro Risk and Gold:
What the data tells us

1. Where next for King Dollar?
2. Macro Risk & Gold
3. Dollar weakness = Room forTech to outperform Discretionary

‍

‍

1. The Trump Discount - EURUSD
2. SPY sensitivity to Dollar& 5s30s hitting extremes
3. What's priced? Global government

‍

‍

1. Trump Pivot coincides with Credit Impulse Extremes
2. S&P500– Past Peak Uncertainty but Path Still Choppy
3. MDAX Value from Recent Chaos

1. USDJPY
2. NASDAQ back in macro regime
3. Bonds vs Commodities - recession vs inflation

1. Equities vs. Bonds
2. Inflation vs. Recession
3. Aussie- a cheap "risk on" bet