Hamburger
Request a demo
Close
Close
Orion Nebula 11107 1920
30.04.2021
US vs. Europe
European equities are near recent lows relative to the US. On Qi, the Euro Stoxx 600 vs S&P500 model is 0.7 sigma (1.2%) below macro fair value, towards the bottom of recent ranges.
Premium content, for a full analysis sign up to a month of insights
30.04.2021
European Autos
Qi’s Tactical Asset Allocation work flagged that the uptrend in the European Auto sector was exhausted & rolling over. The momentum picture remains weak – RETINA™ shows a new ST downtrend while the LT uptrend is sharply decelerating. However, from a macro valuation perspective it is starting to screen as cheap relative to several peers.
See more
Picture1
29.04.2021
Canada: the multi-asset view
No excitement from the Fed overnight but it’s now one week since the Bank of Canada became the first G7 central bank to signal an end to extraordinary monetary policy accommodation. How has the dust settled?
See more
Bloomberg3
28.04.2021
Qi & Bloomberg
Bloomberg's article "Bitcoin at Inflection Point Amid Recent Selloff, Technicals Show" cites Qi's analysis of the crypto complex.
See more
Anna Anikina Ath9Gmakfpe Unsplash
28.04.2021
Food Inflation
Commodity prices continue to surge higher. What is striking in the table below is:
See more
Orion Nebula 11107 1920
27.04.2021
European Re-Opening Trade
For proponents of the re-opening trade, Europe offers a classic value play. And Financials are often the epicentre of the value style, especially in Europe. On Qi, European Financials are now 1.3 sigma (4.3%) cheap versus Technology.
See more
Jeremy Thomas E0Ahdsenmdg Unsplash
26.04.2021
Amber light for risk appetite
VIX remains sub 20 but the Qi Vol Indicator continues to tick higher. When macro’s explanatory power starts to fall across global equity, bond & FX markets, it can act as a warning that markets are due a bout of volatility.
Premium content, for a full analysis sign up to a month of insights
Hs 2009 25 Hubble
22.04.2021
Pricing Power
Any second phase of the re-opening trade could be more discerning than a simple growth versus value dynamic. Divergence between winners & losers could take a different shape. Pricing power is one variable that could be key.
See more
Adam Birkett 77Hmm5Tg N4 Unsplash
21.04.2021
Go Green
It has been announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the US Climate Summit that starts tomorrow, boosting hopes the two superpowers can cooperate on this issue while still disagreeing on many others.
See more
Casey Horner Rmowqdcqn2E Unsplash
21.04.2021
Re-visiting Reflation:
XLI vs. XLU
This latest pullback in US equities has seen US Industrials move to 0.8 sigma (5.8% cheap) versus Utilities. That’s a one year low for the Qi Fair Value Gap.
See more
Close
30.04.2021
European Autos
Qi’s Tactical Asset Allocation work flagged that the uptrend in the European Auto sector was exhausted & rolling over. The momentum picture remains weak – RETINA™ shows a new ST downtrend while the LT uptrend is sharply decelerating. However, from a macro valuation perspective it is starting to screen as cheap relative to several peers.
See more
The chart below shows the 10 biggest valuation gaps across all Qi’s global ETF relative value models. European Autos (EXV5) is in three of the top 10 FVGs; & each time it is cheap & at a one year extreme.
Qqq
There is a strong need for bottom up analysis here - to assess the impact from the shortage in semiconductor chips & possible production cuts. Align Qi’s macro valuation plus trend/momentum analytics with company fundamentals.

From a macro perspective, Autos are 6.8% cheap versus Travel & Leisure EXV5 vs. EXV9, 6.8% cheap vs Banks EXV1 vs. EXV5 & 5.6% cheap vs Media EXV5 vs. EXH6.

All back-test well. Buying Autos vs Banks at 1.4 sigma since 2009, for example, produces a 75% hit rate & +1.7% average return. Moreover, it now has a Divergence signal too with spot price of EXV1 / EXV5 & macro fair value moving in opposite directions over the last 10days.

Separately, Qi RETINA™ has flagged a momentum sell signal on European Industrials. The sector is in a strong macro regime but there is no FVG of note. This is not a valuation call, but a pure trend signal – the uptrend looks stretched & has started to lose momentum.
Picture1
29.04.2021
Canada: the multi-asset view
No excitement from the Fed overnight but it’s now one week since the Bank of Canada became the first G7 central bank to signal an end to extraordinary monetary policy accommodation. How has the dust settled?
See more
Canada
  • Equities. The TSX 60 ETF XIU is in a strong regime & one where it is comfortable with reflation. Rising inflation, higher bond yields are all tailwinds – they currently reflect stronger growth, not tighter financial conditions. A FVG of +0.4 sigma (+2.2%) suggests a modest amount of this favourable scenario is already discounted.
  • FX. Spot CAD has moved aggressively since the BoC last week but, on the whole, it is moving in line with macro fundamentals. Most models are within 0.5 sigma of fair value. The exception is USDCAD at -0.9 sigma (-2.2%). A 1 year low for the FVG & a level that back-tests well (72% hit rate, +0.8% average return).
  • Fixed Income. Canadian credit (VSC, ZCM) & Canadian rates are close to model value. Even with the BoC induced re-pricing of the front end, 1y1y CAD is within 0.5 sigma of fair value. Most interesting is the 2s10s curve – in regime & 18bp too flat versus macro. An attractive entry point for those who believe QT + issuance equates to a steeper yield curve.
Bloomberg3
28.04.2021
Qi & Bloomberg
Bloomberg's article "Bitcoin at Inflection Point Amid Recent Selloff, Technicals Show" cites Qi's analysis of the crypto complex.
See more
Anna Anikina Ath9Gmakfpe Unsplash
28.04.2021
Food Inflation
Commodity prices continue to surge higher. What is striking in the table below is:
See more
  • Despite idiosyncratic supply shocks, overall the commodity complex remains well explained by macro fundamentals.
  • Only 4 models that are in regime are more than 0.5 sigma away from macro fair value. Commodities are largely trading in line with their macro environment.
  • There is a notable valuation skew to soft commodities being rich to macro.
Soft
  • Copper *, at 0.8 sigma (8.2%) above model fair value, is the only metal in the rich zone.
  • Otherwise the standouts are all agricultural commodities. Wheat is not in a macro regime but rich; Corn is 1.4 sigma (18.2%) rich to macro while the broader Invesco Agriculture ETF DBA is 1.2 sigma (7.7%) above model.
  • Commodities are inherently a unique asset class - macro signals must always be aligned with supply/demand fundamentals. But even with cold & dry weather in US & Brazil, macro factors suggest anyone looking for a pause in this latest leg of the commodity super cycle should consider agriculture first up.
* since April 15th's "Copper - the pause that refreshes" spot copper has rallied 10.5%. The FVG was -0.3 sigma at that time & now stands at +0.8 sigma. Macro-warranted model value has moved higher from $428 to $435, but spot has moved up more aggressively.
Orion Nebula 11107 1920
27.04.2021
European Re-Opening Trade
For proponents of the re-opening trade, Europe offers a classic value play. And Financials are often the epicentre of the value style, especially in Europe. On Qi, European Financials are now 1.3 sigma (4.3%) cheap versus Technology.
See more
Techfin
Improvements in the vaccination programme, increased mobility & the fact that it has lagged the US, are all cited as reasons why Europe benefits from the next wave of the reflation trade.

Qi’s European Technology vs Financials model is in regime (76% model confidence) with an intuitive set of drivers. The European Technology sector may be smaller than its US equivalent but it shares the same defensive characteristics. Falling inflation, declining commodities & wider credit spreads are all consistent with tech outperforming banks.

But at +1.3 sigma (+4.3%) the Fair Value Gap for the SX8P / SXFP ratio is getting towards the top end of recent ranges, suggesting a fair degree of that news is in the price.

Back-testing the significance of the +1.3 sigma FVG as a sell signal since 2009 produces a decent hit rate (63%), a negative average return but positive median return of +1.1%. There is a fat-tail of outsized losses that skew the results. Adding a discretionary overlay & incorporating stop/losses alongside the Qi valuation signal is critical.

Still, as a trade expression for a European re-opening, this merits consideration.
Hs 2009 25 Hubble
22.04.2021
Pricing Power
Any second phase of the re-opening trade could be more discerning than a simple growth versus value dynamic. Divergence between winners & losers could take a different shape. Pricing power is one variable that could be key.
See more
  • Energy & Financials remain the preeminent inflation plays amongst US sectors. Their sensitivity to US inflation expectations has been trending higher all year & they remain, by some margin, the biggest beneficiaries of reflation.
  • Consumer Staples are often touted as the most vulnerable to inflation. They are perceived as lacking pricing power, & hence higher costs equate to lower margins.
  • Staples want higher inflation, but sensitivity is the smallest of all sectors that are in macro regimes. Health Care, Consumer Discretionary & IT all show even less sensitivity but that probably reflects all have seen model confidence drop below our 65% threshold for a regime
Inflation1
The rotation trade that has dominated equity markets has been undergoing a consolidation for the last month. For many, this is a pause before the primary trend re-establishes itself. The second phase of the reflation trade could be more discerning than a simple growth versus value dynamic though.

Divergence between winners & losers could take a different shape. Pricing power is one variable that could be key. Which stocks have the ability to pass higher raw material costs onto the consumer in the form of higher prices?

Bottom-up analysis will provide one answer. It is worth overlaying that with the quantitative top down picture. The chart above shows the eleven GICS Level 1 US sectors & their sensitivity to US inflation expectations.

Should any of these relationships turn negative, we would have an empirical demonstration that rising inflation had flipped from being a tailwind to a headwind for that sector.
Adam Birkett 77Hmm5Tg N4 Unsplash
21.04.2021
Go Green
It has been announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the US Climate Summit that starts tomorrow, boosting hopes the two superpowers can cooperate on this issue while still disagreeing on many others.
See more
One vehicle for trading the climate theme is the Invesco Solar ETF. TAN is now one sigma (28%) cheap versus macro fair value on Qi’s model which has a strong (75%) confidence. That FVG has opened up because of a sharp divergence between a stable macro fair value (red line) & sharp fall in the spot price (blue line).
Tan
The model is dominated by two critical drivers. A desire for stronger global growth & ongoing Quantitative Easing from the Fed. In that sense, & in smart beta terms, it reflects elements of both a value play as well as growth. The growth to value rotation has driven some of the profit-taking that has hurt TAN of late, but Qi shows economic growth is a key positive macro driver.

For many, TAN captures two key contemporary themes – climate change, plus President Biden’s infrastructure plans which include a strong element of new environmental technology.

Given the secular shift to green tech, plus the potential cyclical kicker of the reflation trade being juiced by the American Jobs Plan (& assuming no offset from monetary policy), Qi's valuation makes TAN a potentially interesting vehicle.
Casey Horner Rmowqdcqn2E Unsplash
21.04.2021
Re-visiting Reflation:
XLI vs. XLU
This latest pullback in US equities has seen US Industrials move to 0.8 sigma (5.8% cheap) versus Utilities. That’s a one year low for the Qi Fair Value Gap.
See more
Wednesday
Model confidence is strong (80%) & the drivers are intuitive. Industrials outperform in a reflationary, Goldilocks environment – rising inflation & commodity prices, easy financial conditions (especially tight credit spreads) & low risk aversion (VIX).

At this FVG, XLI vs. XLU has discounted a decent amount of bad news. For those who believe this is simply a pause that refreshes the reflation trade, this provides an attractive entry level.

Indeed, since 2009 buying the XLI/XLU ratio at -0.8 sigma FVG (subject to the model being in a macro regime) has produced 20 trades, a hit rate of 85% & an average return of +2.1%.

The one caveat is that macro model value has also edged lower in the last few days. Watching that via the Historical Model Value chart on the Qi portal will help finesse execution levels. The ideal combination is cheap valuation plus macro model value turning higher.
Close
Thank you for request
A team member will contact you soon shortly.
Request a demo
Explore Quant Insight's unique data, analysis and solutions to understand how you and your team can easily integrate our information into your workflow.
Book a 15 minute intro call here



Or, simply complete the short enquiry form on this page, and one of our team will be in touch via email.
Name: 
Company email: 
Tel number (optional): 
Company: 
My geographical location is:

My asset class focus is:
Submit